Abstract: The heavy metal element contents in soil affect the quality of soil environment. Their prediction using different models based on survey data is an important means to study the changing trends of soil element contents and soil environmental quality. Based on the data from 1∶250 000 multi-purpose regional geochemical surveys and 1∶50 000 land quality geochemical assessments, this study predicted the contents of five heavy metal elements in the soil of the study area in 2027 using the single-period incremental model and the input-output flux model individually. The results are as follows. The two models yielded different prediction results but consistent trends that the contents of five heavy metal elements increased to different degrees. Moreover, the single-period incremental model yielded larger increments than the input-output flux model. Among the various input channels of the flux model, Cd and Pb entered the soil mainly through dry and wet atmospheric subsidence, As and Cr entered the soil mainly through fertilization, and Hg entered the soil mainly through irrigation water. Based on the survey and prediction data of soil monitoring sites, the soil environmental quality grade was classified for these sites. The proportion of the sites for priority protection showed a downward trend, indicating that the soil environmental quality decreased year by year.